Free CS2 Case Opening Simulator
Updated October 2026 · MyCS2Guru crew
Want to scratch the unboxing itch without spending a cent? This free CS2 case opening simulator uses Valve's published rarity odds. Hit the buttons, open as many cases as you like and see how the drops really shake out, including how much the keys would have cost you.
Free CS2 case opening simulator (rarity odds)
Uses the rarity odds Valve published: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, Rare Special (knife/gloves) 0.26%, plus a 10% StatTrak roll. No money, no items, just maths.
| Rarity | Count | Share |
|---|
How the simulator works
Each virtual case rolls a random number and maps it onto Valve's rarity table:
| Rarity | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% |
| Rare Special (gold) | 0.26% |
Then it rolls a separate 10% chance for StatTrak. It doesn't pick specific skins, because what matters for your wallet is how often you hit each rarity.
Things to try
- Open 385. That's the average for one gold, and see how often you actually get one.
- Open 100 a few times. Notice how different each batch is. That's variance.
- Count the key cost. The simulator shows what you'd have spent on keys alone.
- Track reds and golds. Those are the drops that can cover your costs, and they're rare.
What the simulator teaches you
- Blue drops dominate, around 4 in 5.
- Golds are streaky: some people hit early, many go hundreds of cases without one.
- The costs pile up fast at roughly $2.49 a key.
Simulator vs real case opening
| Simulator | Real CS2 case | Case site | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost | Free | Key + case | Case price |
| Real items | No | Yes | Yes (withdrawable) |
| Odds | Valve rarity | Valve rarity | Site's own table |
| Risk | None | Real money | Real money |
Avoid fake simulators
Some "simulators" are fronts for phishing or gambling sign-ups. A real simulator never needs your Steam login, password, API key or a deposit. If it asks, close it.
Ready for real free cases?
The closest thing to a free real case: claim the welcome perks with FREECASES4U: 3 free cases on Clash.gg, and a free case worth up to $1.4k on CSGOEmpire (where your country is allowed). These are real items you can withdraw.
Learn more
Reading your results
After opening a batch, compare your share of each rarity with the official odds. Over a few cases, your numbers will look all over the place. Over hundreds, they'll creep towards the official percentages. That's the law of large numbers, and it's exactly why long-term case opening ends up close to the expected value, which is below what you pay.
| Batch size | What to expect |
|---|---|
| 10 cases | Mostly blues, maybe a purple or two, rarely a pink |
| 100 cases | Around 80 blues, 16 purples, 3 pinks, maybe a red |
| 385 cases | Roughly a 63% chance of at least one gold |
| 1,000 cases | Very likely at least one gold, often 2-3 |
Why the simulator doesn't show prices
Skin prices change every day and vary hugely within a rarity. A blue can be worth 3 cents or 30 cents, and a gold anywhere from about a hundred dollars to thousands. Showing rarity keeps the simulator accurate. If you want value estimates, use a live EV tracker alongside it.
Use the simulator to set a budget
Here's a neat trick: before you spend money on real cases, open the number of virtual cases your budget would buy. If $25 gets you about 9 keys, open 9 virtual cases a few times and see what you typically get. If that result would disappoint you with real money, you've just saved $25.
Simulator FAQ
Is it rigged? No. It uses your browser's random number generator and Valve's published rarity odds. Refresh and try again as many times as you like.
Does it include souvenir or sticker capsule odds? No, it simulates standard weapon cases. Capsules have different odds, covered in our sticker capsule guide.
Can I save my results? Not yet. Take a screenshot if you hit a gold.
Why does StatTrak show separately? In real cases, StatTrak is an extra roll on eligible items, roughly 10%, so we show it separately.
Share your luckiest run
Hit a gold in under 50 virtual cases? That's roughly a 12% chance, so you're luckier than most. Just remember that luck in the simulator doesn't carry over to real cases. Every opening, real or virtual, starts from the same odds.