CS2 Case Odds and Drop Rates: Knife Odds, Rarity Chances and EV
Updated October 2026 · MyCS2Guru crew
Bro, before you buy another key, you should know exactly what you're up against. Here are the CS2 case odds and drop rates: Valve's official rarity percentages, what they mean for knife and glove hunting, the StatTrak maths, the expected value of opening, and how odds work differently on case sites like Clash.gg and CSGOEmpire.
18+ for gambling sites. Opening cases costs real money and usually returns less than you spend. Responsible gambling.
Official CS2 case drop rates
Valve published rarity odds for weapon cases (after rules in China required loot box odds disclosure in 2017). They're the standard numbers everyone uses:
| Rarity | Colour | Chance per case | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.92% | 1.25 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 6.3 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.20% | 31 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 156 |
| Rare Special (knife/gloves) | Gold | 0.26% | 385 |
On top of that, items in eligible cases have a 10% chance to be StatTrak.
CS2 knife odds explained
The 0.26% gold chance covers every Rare Special item in that case. Some cases hold knives, others gloves.
| Goal | Chance per case | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Any gold item | 0.26% | 385 |
| StatTrak gold (knife cases) | 0.026% | 3,850 |
| A specific knife type, e.g. 1 of 5 | about 0.052% | 1,925 |
| A specific knife and finish, e.g. 1 of 5 types x 13 finishes | about 0.004% | 25,000 |
The last row is why "unbox my dream knife" is mostly a fantasy: the exact knife and finish you want is a very long shot. Finishes may not be equally likely, so treat that as a rough guide.
How many cases until a knife?
There's no pity timer, so here's the probability of getting at least one gold in N openings:
| Cases opened | Chance of at least 1 gold |
|---|---|
| 50 | about 12% |
| 100 | about 23% |
| 200 | about 41% |
| 385 | about 63% |
| 500 | about 73% |
| 1,000 | about 93% |
Even after 385 cases, more than a third of people still won't have one. And each case needs a key, which costs around $2.49 in the US, plus the case itself.
Expected value: why opening loses money
Expected value (EV) is the average value of what you'd unbox, compared with what you pay. Independent trackers that calculate EV from market prices regularly show most CS2 cases returning well under the cost of key plus case. Why:
- 80% of drops are blue items, often worth cents.
- The gold that "pays for" everything only shows up 0.26% of the time.
- Valve takes the key money, and Steam Market prices include fees.
Prices move, so EV changes daily. Check a live EV tracker before opening if you care about value. Our verdict: open for fun, never for profit.
Odds on case opening sites
Sites like Clash.gg and CSGOEmpire run their own cases. They don't use Valve's rarity table. Each case lists its items and exact chances.
| In-game CS2 cases | Case sites | |
|---|---|---|
| Odds source | Valve's rarity table | The site's own per-item table |
| Cost | Key + case | Case price in balance |
| Verifiable | No independent verification | Provably fair seeds |
| Item pools | Fixed collection | Any skins the site chooses |
| Withdraw | Item goes to your inventory | Withdraw to Steam or sell back |
How to read a site's odds table: note the chance of each item, multiply by its value, add it up and compare that with the case price. That's the case's EV. Look at what percentage of outcomes are worth less than the price.
| Site | Bonus with FREECASES4U | Games | Payments | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clash.gg (Top pick) | 3 Free Cases + 5% deposit bonus | Case battles, cases, upgrader, crash, roulette, plinko, mines, keno, esports | CS2 skins, crypto | Claim |
| CSGOEmpire | Free case up to $1.4k | Roulette, case battles, cases, coinflip, esports | CS2 skins, crypto | Claim |
Want to try site cases without paying? Use FREECASES4U: 3 free cases on Clash.gg, and a free case worth up to $1.4k on CSGOEmpire (check its restricted countries first: the US, UK, Australia and others aren't accepted).
Wear (float) odds
Once a skin is picked, its float is random within that skin's float range, which decides the wear tier:
| Wear | Float range |
|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.00-0.07 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07-0.15 |
| Field-Tested | 0.15-0.38 |
| Well-Worn | 0.38-0.45 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45-1.00 |
Some skins have limited float ranges, so they can't come in every wear.
Common myths about CS2 case odds
| Myth | Truth |
|---|---|
| "Open at a certain time for better odds" | Odds don't change by time |
| "Older cases have better knife odds" | Same 0.26% gold rate |
| "Opening many at once improves odds" | Each case is independent |
| "You're due after 300 cases" | No pity system |
Smarter alternatives to opening
- Buy the exact skin on the market: cheaper on average than opening for it.
- Simulate first: try our free case opening simulator.
- Use free cases from promo codes and daily rewards.
- Read how to get a knife in CS2 for every route.
Bottom line
A gold is about 1 in 385, a StatTrak gold about 1 in 3,850, and your dream knife is far rarer. Open for the fun of it, set a budget, and buy skins directly if you actually want a specific one.
Quick maths you can do yourself
To work out the chance of at least one hit in N tries: 1 - (1 - p)^N, where p is the chance per case. For gold, p = 0.0026. For red, p = 0.0064. Plug it into any calculator before you decide how many keys to buy.