CS2 Case Luck Tables: What Streaks Are Normal?
Updated · MyCS2Guru crew
Everyone "knows" a knife is about 1 in 385. What that number hides is how wide the luck spread is. We took the rarity odds Valve officially published (the same ones on our case odds & EV page) and did the probability maths, so you can see what streaks are normal before you spend a cent.
Chance of at least one hit after N openings
Formula: 1 − (1 − p)N, where p is the published per-opening odds. Every opening is independent; the case doesn't "owe" you anything.
| Openings | 1 | 10 | 25 | 50 | 100 | 250 | 500 | 1000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classified (3.20%) | 3.2% | 27.8% | 55.7% | 80.3% | 96.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Covert (0.64%) | 0.6% | 6.2% | 14.8% | 27.5% | 47.4% | 79.9% | 96.0% | 99.8% |
| Rare Special Item (knife/gloves) (0.26%) | 0.3% | 2.6% | 6.3% | 12.2% | 22.9% | 47.8% | 72.8% | 92.6% |
How many openings until you're likely to hit
| Tier | Average (1 in) | 50% chance by | 90% chance by | 99% chance by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classified | 31 | 22 | 71 | 142 |
| Covert | 156 | 108 | 359 | 718 |
| Rare Special Item (knife/gloves) | 385 | 267 | 885 | 1,769 |
What the tables say
- After 385 openings (the "average" for a knife) you've still only got about 63% odds of having pulled one. Roughly a third of people who open that many get nothing gold.
- To be 90% sure of a knife or gloves you need around 885 openings. Multiply that by your key + case cost before you start.
- Covert drops are rarer than most people think: half of all players would still be waiting after 108 openings.
Sources and method
Rarity odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, Rare Special Item 0.26%, as published by Valve (2017). All other numbers are our own calculations from those odds, rounded; nothing here is a measured sample or a sales claim. Case-site odds (Clash.gg, CSGOEmpire and others) are set by each site and can differ: check their provably-fair pages. Methodology: how we work.
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