CS2 Trade Up Contracts: How They Work and How to Find the Best Ones

Updated October 2026 · MyCS2Guru crew

Trade up contracts are CS2's crafting system, bro: feed in a stack of cheaper skins and get one better skin out. Done right, they can turn spare inventory into something you want, and occasionally into a profit. Done wrong, they're just case opening with extra steps. Here's how CS2 trade up contracts work, including the new knife trade-up, and how to find the best trade ups.

How a trade up works

Rarity ladder: Consumer, then Industrial, Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, Covert, and now Covert to gold via the special 5-item contract.

Outcome odds

Each input "votes" for its collection:

Chance of a specific output = (inputs from its collection / total inputs) / (number of possible outputs in that collection at the next rarity).

Example: 7 inputs from Collection A (which has 2 possible outputs) and 3 from Collection B (which has 1 possible output):

That's how traders "steer" outcomes, by choosing collections with few, valuable outputs.

Float maths (why wear matters)

The output's float depends on your inputs' floats, mapped onto the output skin's float range. Lower-float inputs produce lower-float outputs. A Factory New output can be worth much more than a Field-Tested one, so float control is a big part of profitable trade ups. Valve has adjusted the exact calculation over time, so use an up-to-date trade up calculator to predict output wear before signing.

The Covert to knife/gloves contract

Since the October 2025 update:

• 5 Covert skins produce a knife or gloves.
• 5 StatTrak Coverts produce a StatTrak result.
• Possible outcomes depend on the cases or collections your Coverts come from.
• You can't pick the exact knife or finish.

Before doing it, list the possible golds and their prices. If the cheapest outcome is far below the cost of your five Coverts, you're gambling. Read more in how to get a knife in CS2.

How to find the best trade ups

1. Use a trade up calculator with live prices.
2. Check the cheapest outcome. Can you live with it?
3. Calculate EV: sum of (chance x value) across outcomes, minus selling fees.
4. Compare with input cost, including any fees to buy inputs.
5. Check float requirements for the output wear you're counting on.
6. Check liquidity. Can you actually sell the output at that price?
7. Recheck prices right before signing, because markets move.

Why most trade ups lose money

• Popular profitable contracts get "farmed", which pushes input prices up.
• Steam's fee on selling (built into Market prices) eats margins. You need a decent edge just to break even.
• Output prices can fall when lots of people do the same contract.
• Float mistakes turn a Factory New plan into a Minimal Wear result.

Step-by-step: doing a trade up in CS2

1. Collect your 10 inputs (or 5 Coverts) of the same rarity and type.
2. In CS2, go to Inventory and pick Trade Up Contract on an eligible item.
3. Add your inputs. The game shows possible outcomes.
4. Double-check everything (StatTrak, floats, collections).
5. Sign the contract. The inputs are consumed and you get your output.

Trade up mistakes

1. Not checking the cheapest outcome.
2. Ignoring fees.
3. Using inputs with floats that are too high.
4. Mixing collections without calculating the odds.
5. Following an old "best trade up" list without rechecking prices.
6. Doing knife trade ups with Coverts worth more than the likely gold.

Bottom line

Trade ups are a great way to turn spare skins into one you want, and sometimes into a small profit, if you do the maths with live prices and fees. Treat "guaranteed profit" lists with suspicion and always know your worst case.

Worked EV example (made-up prices)

You plan a Restricted to Classified contract with 10 inputs costing $0.80 each ($8 total). Possible outcomes:

EV ($9.45) beats the input cost ($8), so the contract has positive expected value on paper, around +18%. But the worst case (A at $6) is a $2 loss, and you'd hit it 35% of the time. Prices must still be right when you sell, and the output float must land in the wear you priced. That's what a "good" trade up looks like: positive EV, an acceptable worst case and liquid outputs.

Trade up strategies traders use

• Filler skins: cheap inputs from a collection with no valuable outputs, used to adjust odds. Careful, because fillers also add bad outcomes.
• Float targeting: buying low-float inputs to guarantee a Factory New or Minimal Wear output.
• Single-output collections: collections with only one possible output at the next rarity give a guaranteed result.
• StatTrak contracts: often pricier inputs but higher-value outputs.
• Timing: buying inputs when prices dip and selling outputs when demand is high.

Trade up checklist

• [ ] All inputs the same rarity and StatTrak status
• [ ] Odds calculated per outcome
• [ ] Output float predicted with a current calculator
• [ ] EV after fees above input cost
• [ ] Worst case acceptable
• [ ] Outputs liquid enough to sell
• [ ] Prices rechecked just before signing

Trade ups vs case opening

Quick answers

Can I undo a trade up? No. Once signed, the inputs are gone. Check everything before you click.

Do trade ups work with skins from cases and collections? Yes, as long as the inputs are eligible and share the same rarity and StatTrak status.

Is there a "best trade up" that always works? No. Profitable contracts shift as prices move and other traders copy them.